EP-021Institutional MemoryLearning Loop Active

Decision Intelligence™

Every material decision — recorded, reasoned, and reviewed. Track expected vs. actual outcomes; AI surfaces patterns, bias and decision quality across the enterprise.

Success Rate
50%
Avg Quality
73
Forecast Acc.
80%
Open
2
Decisions

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AcquisitionwonOpened 2024-03-11 · Closed 2026-01-08

Acquire 340 W Broad — vertical air rights

Owner: M. Patel · Aster Capital
Reasoning
FAR uplift + adjacency to transit expansion. Trust Network™ evidence at 0.91 confidence.
Expected Outcome
IRR 17-19% over 5 yrs
Supporting Evidence
AIRScore 82Signals: rezoning filedComps: +18% YoY
Risks
Entitlement delayRate volatility
Alternatives Considered
PassJV with local sponsor
Actual Outcome
IRR 18.4% over 4.7 yrs
Decision Quality
88/100
Forecast Accuracy
94%
Contribution to Learning
Active
Reporting

Export

AI Analysis

Patterns by category

Acquisition50% · n=2
Development0% · n=1
Divestment100% · n=1
Policy0% · n=1
Partnership0% · n=1
Bias Detection

Cognitive signals

Recency bias34
Recent wins over-weighted in 3 of last 8 decisions.
Anchoring22
Broker comps anchoring initial valuations in acquisitions.
Optimism41
Timeline estimates trending 18% under actual for development.
Confirmation19
Evidence chains show balanced sourcing.
Learning Loop

Recent lessons

  • Divestment timing improved when Signals ≥ 3 concurrent triggers fire.
  • Development timelines underestimated by ~18%; apply buffer.
  • Partnership decisions with utility counterparties show 92% success.
Lessons feed back into Reality Engine™ priors, improving AIRScore™ and Opportunity Radar™ recommendations.
Decision Intelligence™ outputs are informational only and do not constitute legal, financial, tax, or investment advice. Each decision remains the responsibility of its recorded owner.