EP-020Decision Modeling10 scenario types

Scenario Studio™

Model multiple futures before committing capital. Compare cost, timeline, risk, ROI, employment, tax and AIRScore impact side-by-side, then export as a board memo.

Scenarios

Modeled futures

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Type library

Adaptive reuse / vertical build
Scale100%
Horizon5 yrs
Incentive intensity20
Discount rate8%
Estimated Cost
$130.5M
Timeline
3.5 yrs
Risk
39/100
Capital
$189M
ROI
20.4%
Employment
480
Tax Revenue
$5.7M/yr
AIRScore Δ
+15
Compare

Side-by-side scenarios

Heat coloring shows better (green) vs. worse (amber) per metric across the modeled set.

MetricBaseline Redevelopment
Redevelopment
Aggressive Rezoning
Rezoning
Transit-Led Growth
Transit
Estimated Cost
$130.5M
$11.2M
$289.8M
Timeline
3.5 yrs
1.3 yrs
6.7 yrs
Risk
39/100
47/100
42/100
Capital
$189M
$18.6M
$336.6M
ROI
20.4%
44.2%
10.7%
Employment
480
144
594
Tax Revenue
$5.7M/yr
$2.07M/yr
$5.42M/yr
AIRScore Δ
+15
+29
+31
Timeline

Delivery horizon

Baseline Redevelopment3.5 yrs · ROI 20.4%
Aggressive Rezoning1.3 yrs · ROI 44.2%
Transit-Led Growth6.7 yrs · ROI 10.7%
Baseline Redevelopment
NPV proxy$135M
Payback27.5 yrs
Risk-adj ROI16.4%
Aggressive Rezoning
NPV proxy$11M
Payback6.2 yrs
Risk-adj ROI33.8%
Transit-Led Growth
NPV proxy$241M
Payback56.1 yrs
Risk-adj ROI8.5%
Simulations are informational only. Estimates are directional and do not constitute legal, financial, tax, or investment advice. Validate assumptions with counsel and underwriting before committing capital.